Hillary Clinton for President 2012
Here’s some fodder for the conspiracy theorists among us. James Clyburn, (D) South Carolina and House Democratic Whip, mentioned in an interview yesterday that he is hearing speculation that
Clinton is staying in the race only to try to derail Obama and pave the way for her to make another White House run in 2012.
According to Clyburn’s ‘theory,’ the Clinton’s have realized that Mrs. Clinton will not be able to win the primary this year and so her intent is to beat Senator Obama to the point in which he is unelectable, handing the Presidency to John McCain and then running against McCain in 2012. Brilliant!
Clyburn has explicitly remained neutral in the race, but he has not been shy about criticizing the negative tone of the campaigns nor has he been shy about taking the Clintonistas to task for their tactics. He went on to say:
“I think it’s so disingenuous … (adviser James) Carville and Sen. Clinton were all on TV. I’ve seen them two or three times this week, talking about counting Florida and Michigan.”Obama did not campaign in those states because the Democratic Party said Florida and Michigan wouldn’t be included in the formal tally for the nomination. “Her name was the only one on the ticket in Michigan and still 42, 43 percent of the vote was against her,” Clyburn said.
That is something that the Clintonistas, in their ongoing inane argument that FL and MI delegates be seated, conveniently leave out: Clinton was the only person on the ballot in MI and yet 42% of the voters showed up to vote AGAINST her.
Think about that. I am a busy guy and it is hard enough to leave work and vote when I actually have a candidate to vote for and my vote will be counted. What does it say when 42% of the voters take time off work to cast a vote for ‘Not Clinton’ in a race in which their vote will not be counted?
But let’s get back to the idea we started with. If you have been following things you probably know that Hillary’s chances of catching Obama at this point are nearly a mathematical impossibility. The sheer number of votes in the remaining races she would have to garner are implausible if not all together impossible. The task becomes all the more daunting when one considers there are still contests remaining that Obama is expected to win.
Using Forbes Delegate Counter, I plugged in 20-point victories for every remaining contest in which Hillary is favored. So, she wins Guam, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia and Puerto Rico by 20 points. Furthermore, I gave her a 10 point victory in South Dakota and 60% of the remaining Super Delegates. To Obama, I awarded a 10 9-point win in North Carolina, a 4-point victory in Oregon and a 2-point victory in Montana.
Thus, she rolls to 20-point victories in all contests she is expected to be competitive in and I only award Obama three more single-digit victories resulting in….Obama still beating her by 29 delegates.
There is no conceivable way for her to post 20-point victories against him in all the states she expects to win, if in any at all. The remaining races will all be closer than 20 points, guaranteed. Furthermore, he may very well win Indiana, South Dakota and West Virginia.
She is, mathematically, done. So, back to Clyburn’s theory, is Hillary bruising up Obama in order to spell his imminent defeat and thus launch her 2012 campaign?
Who knows. She told us she is not dumb and so we are all left scratching our heads. Why does she stay in and continue her bloodthirsty attacks?
Hillary Clinton in 2012?
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[...] D. Cupples wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptJames Clyburn, (D) South Carolina and House Democratic whip, mentioned in an interview yesterday that he is hearing speculation that Clinton is staying in the race only to try to derail Obama and pave the way for her to make another … [...]