Hillary Wins and Hillary Loses
Updated 3/12/08 10:30 PST -
Hillary’s ‘win’ is more of a loss than I thought. AOL is reporting she finished her big momentum week by falling behind another 15 Delegates!
A further analysis of the delegate race over at DailyKos reveals that Clinton’s supposedly big week has actually resulted in a net loss of 15 delegates to the front-runner. That’s right, Obama continued to widen his delegate lead. Add to that another 6 delegate cushion after Mississippi, as well as another 99,000-vote-advantage to buttress Obama’s overall lead in the popular vote, and one gets the feeling that Obama’s momentum didn’t really subside as much as was reported.
Original Post Follows:
So there I was, a little after 1 am here in LA last night, watching the six-screen split that DirectTV offers that allows you to watch six different news channels at once and I am surfing through the web to see what the blogosphere was saying and I was texting different Obama campaign members in Texas to get their takes. It was like a bleary-eyed night in Vegas, after too many flashing lights and ringing bells overwhelm your senses and leave you shivering in the corner of your pitch black hotel room. I had too much stimulation and needed to step away from the news and drift off to sleep with dreams of a world without Texas and Ohio.
I wake up to a world that was already spinning. Granted the world is always spinning at roughly 1,000 mph, in addition to the 67,000 mph we travel as we are making circles around the sun, but that is not the spin of which I speak.
We hear Hillary exclaiming, “No candidate in recent history, Democratic or Republican, has won the White House without winning the Ohio primary.” (which, by the way, is a BOLD FACED LIE - thanks to Inspired Voter for pointing this out.) And thereby making her case that she should be the Democratic Presidential Nominee even though she is losing the nationwide popular vote, losing the delegate count and losing in terms of number of states. However, her spin is that with Ohio and other states she considers significant, in this case - states she has won, should establish her as the go-to gal.
Everyone raise your hands above your heads and scratch them along with me.
The next little bit of spin that downloads to my Blackberry during my morning commute says that, ‘Hillary Suggests She Would Share Ticket With Barack Obama.’ This is very noble of her. It is akin to Tony Romo looking across the offensive line and into the eyes of Michael Strahan of the NY Giants during their playoff meeting in Dallas and saying, ‘Mike, I realize you guys are up by four with under two minutes left, but why don’t we just call it a tie?‘
I really should stop reading the news while driving down Lincoln.
Now I see that the ‘Clinton Campaign has turned a corner,’ and , though she did not find her voice this time, she found an effective means of attacking and tearing down Obama that she feels she can continue until he is a mashed up version of his former self and this will give plausible means for the party insiders to anoint her as queen.
After going three for four from the line last night, Clinton is still way behind. She argues that she was outspent in TX and OH and she was. She says that TX and OH were must-wins for her, and they were. She claims the only big state Obama can win is Illinois and that her wins of states such as NY, CA, NJ and OH are much more important.
Stop. Raise your hands if you think the Democrats cannot win NY, CA and NJ in November with either candidate. Ok, how about with a monkey? I see some of your hands are going down, but most still feel confident. What about a monkey in a suit? Ahh, a little better.
There is some legitimacy to OH. It will be a battleground state. Is Hillary Clinton the only candidate who can win it - of course not. Should Hillary be concerned that she lead in TX and OH by roughly 20 points as recently as two weeks ago?
So, when is a win not a win? (Hmmm, I like to vote, on a boat, from a moat, with a goat. I like to vote in the rain, on a plane or from a train.) ![]()
Back to the question, when is a win not a win? How about when you dump all your finances into the battle for two states and are now debt-ridden and cash-strapped, with infighting and finger-pointing running rampant within your campaign:
Her organization, though, is drained of money and energy. Outgunned by Obama in the fundraising department, the Clinton campaign is carrying millions of dollars in debt, although officials would not say how much, and it threw everything it had into Texas and Ohio. Campaign aides expressed optimism that she will draw a new infusion of money after these primaries and have enough to go forward, although that remains unclear.
Perhaps just as significant, many on her team appear exhausted and dispirited. Advisers have not waited for Ohio and Texas to launch into a furious debate about whom to blame for her problems. Senior advisers described the infighting as debilitating and destructive, with some members of her inner circle barely speaking to one another.
How about when, after a long bloody battle that leaves you drained and in debt, you find out that, according to David Plouffe of the Obama campaign:
“…the most likely outcome of yesterday’s elections will be that Hillary Clinton gained 187 delegates, and we gained 183.
That’s a net gain of 4 delegates out of more than 370 delegates available from all the states that voted.”
Her momentum changing statement is a net 4 delegates, as in 4 delegates that will be erased within six days in Wyoming and Mississippi?
She won some battles yesterday but she is still losing the war. Our system was set up so that whoever received the requisite number of 2025 (2024) delegates would become the nominee. Now Clinton not only can’t reach that number, but she cannot even catch up to Obama. I outlined all of this in a previous post, but even if she were to win the remaining contests by large margins she would still be 58 delegates short, and that was factoring in large victories in last night’s contests as well. Seeing as how Obama is expected to win some of the states left in the contest, think Mississippi, Oregon, Wyoming, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana, the prospect of drawing within striking distance with pledged delegates becomes less plausible. Add to this scenario that she needs a major cash infusion after last night’s contests…you see where I am going with this? She won with her back to the wall last night and has lived to fight another day, but she is only gaining days, not ground.
Hillary’s wins last night slowed Obama’s momentum and the rush of pundits to write her obituary, but a win is not always a win. Just ask Pyrrus.
But…BUT, there still is hope for her. Her Presidential ambitions are now tied to the whims and political futures of the Super-Delegates. If she can grease enough palms, squeeze enough acquaintances and use all of the Billary Machiavellian skills of persuasion she can convince the powers that be to anoint her as leader.
Which will be totally different from how President Bush came into office, right??
At least we can look forward to this.
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Hillary’s claim about no President ever losing in Ohio is wrong. John F. Kennedy lost to Nixon in Ohio by 273,000 votes but still won the Presidency. So much for her fact-checking.